Impact Assessment of Gap on Nigerian Crude Oil Production: A Box-Tiao Intervention Approach

The Nigerian disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programme known as the Amnesty Programme have become common practice in countries facing violent conflict. A time-series model for monthly crude oil production was developed to examine the effect of Government’s Amnesty Programme (GAP) introduced in August 2009. The data used in this study are the monthly crude oil production spanning from January 1999 to December 2020. From results of model estimation, we found that the intervention due to the Amnesty programme had no impact on crude oil production since the null hypothesis that is 0 was retained. Factors suggested to account for this development includes: Crack in deal, as Nigerian Government found it difficult to fund the programme due to incessant fall in oil price and emergence of new groups of militant. The renewed instability and violent attacks on oil facilities have resulted in a serious reduction of crude oil production. Thus, government should consider tackling wider socio-economic grievances in the country’s oil production region in other to bring stability, which will lead to increase in oil production.