Measuring Climate Change Vulnerability and its Adaptive Capacity: Policies and Planning for Bangladesh

Aims: The paper aims to quantify the spatial vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change throughout the various regions i.e. divisions of Bangladesh. Another aim was to formulate befitted policies and planning to reduce the climate change vulnerability for the rural poor.

Study Design: A statistical methodology was implemented to quantify vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change shocks among all seven divisions of Bangladesh using secondary data sets by the IPCC’s integrated vulnerability assessment approach which comprises sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity.

Place and Duration of Study: Desk study: Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh. Field study: Some extreme climate change shock hot spots throughout Bangladesh including flood, cyclone, drought, salinity, water logging etc; from December 2011 to April 2013.

Methodology: Both socioeconomic and biophysical parameters from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), and other secondary sources are integrated with a statistical tool named Principal Component Analysis. To formulate proper policy for reducing climate change related vulnerabilities, primary data were also collected through focus group discussion with climate poor, and stakeholder consultation with program staffs.

Results: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change are found different over the divisions of Bangladesh. Households of Barisal division show extreme climate change vulnerability followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division shows minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet or Dhaka division. On the other hand, the households of Khulna region have higher degree of adaptive capacity to climate change followed by Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions whereas the adaptive capacity was found minimum for the households from Sylhet division followed by Chittagong and Dhaka divisions.

Research Limitations/Implications: The biophysical properties of climate and socioeconomic conditions of households are not constant rather changes occur over time. Consequently measured indices would not constant for a longer time. Further analysis may be needed based on the availability of new data sets in future.

Practical Implications: Policy makers often confuse to think too many interacting factors on course of a disaster management plan, however such a single figure as vulnerability index can straightforward the policy intervention towards a direction.

Originality/Value: Although Bangladesh is a worst victim due to the various types of climate change shocks and stresses, its spatial vulnerability and adaptive capacity throughout the various regions of Bangladesh were not previously quantified.

Social Implications: The results are useful to evaluate potential complications for disaster preparedness and planning of the government.