Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among 86866 Members of the Thai Cohort Study, 2005-2010

Thailand is experiencing a development-associated health-risk transition with increasing prominence of chronic diseases. We aim to determine the risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in Thailand. We conducted longitudinal analyses of deaths in the nationwide Thai Cohort Study from 2005 to 2010 (n=86866) using national vital registration data. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate mutually adjusted estimates of association between dying from CVD and various risk factors measured at baseline in 2005. For three important risks, population attributable fractions were calculated. There were 78 CVD deaths. The probability of dying from CVD for males was 0.15% and for females was 0.04%. Multivariate modelling showed that current smoking (OR=4.01, CI=2.02-7.93), hypertension (OR=1.91, CI=0.95-3.85), and diabetes (OR=2.51, CI=1.01-6.25) are major risk factors of CVD deaths. For males, 54% of CVD deaths can be attributed to smoking. Females are protected by very low rates of smoking. Ischaemic heart disease (OR=6.85, CI=2.47-19.01) is also a strong predictor of CVD deaths. As CVD is a top cause of death, reducing CVD mortality by controlling smoking, hypertension, and hyperglycaemia will substantially improve life expectancy in Thailand today. The low smoking rates among females need to be actively maintained and confer great benefit.