Modelling and Qualitative Analysis of the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues despite series of control measuresimplemented to curtail it. Therefore, it is pertinent to study how the various proposed controlmeasures can be effectively combined in order to stem the alarming spread of the disease andits attendant consequences. In this paper, a deterministic model for the transmission dynamicsof the disease, which incorporates the impacts of the various implemented control measures, ispresented. Based on the proposed model, the disease’s basic reproduction number (R0) wasderived and the equilibrium solutions were determined. It was shown that wheneverR0�1, themodel has only the disease-free equilibrium which is globally stable while in circumstances whereR0>1, there exists an endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. When thelatter equilibrium state exists, the former becomes unstable. In addition, the model parameterswere estimated using Nigeria’s demographic and COVID-19 surveillance data.